Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The new items published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
China Heading for Post Olympics Economic Bust? / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Something is going on in China that simply does not add up. Let's start with the GDP. ChinaView is reporting China think tank forecasts GDP growth at 10.2% in Q3 .
BEIJING, Aug. 8 (Xinhua) -- China will record a GDP growth of 10.2 percent in the third quarter, roughly the same as the second-quarter level, according to a report released on Friday by the State Information Center, a government think tank. The report said consumption would continue to be a major driving force for the national economy. However, auto and home purchases ebbed notably in the first half, adversely affecting consumption in the third quarter. I doubt 10.2% growth is anywhere close to sustainable in a world economy slowing so fast that a global recession is visible on the horizon. Furthermore China has a major pollution mess that needs to be addressed. China is poisoning its land, air, water, and most importantly its citizens.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Growing Herd Of American White Elephants as Corporations Shrink / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2009
By: Mike_Shedlock
Harvard Illinois, located only a half hour or so from where I live, is home to very large white elephant. Please consider the story of the White Elephant of Harvard .
When the sun sets in Harvard, the lights inside the empty Motorola plant power up and a bright glow arches across the sky in this small farm town.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Soft Canadian Job Market Masked By Public Sector Hiring Binge / Economics / Canada
By: Mike_Shedlock
One expects to hear ridiculous statements continually in the US, particularly from Bernanke, Paulson, President Bush, and various commentators on CNBC.However, the US does not have a monopoly silly economic commentary by any means. Tom Jeffries at radio station CKNW Vancouver (see the audio links on the right hand side of this blog - a new one is posted every week or so as time permits) sent me a link to an article on the Canadian job market containing comments best described as "That's Loonie".
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Economic Depression: Who will Suffer the Least? / Economics / Economic Depression
By: John_Browne
Though few may have noticed, the past few weeks may be regarded as a global economic turning point. Evidence is mounting that the United States is entering a recession, with increasing signs that it could morph into a depression. While the current Administration appears resigned to bail out or nationalize large tracts of American commerce, the presidential candidates drift towards Great Society era spending proposals. At the same time, America’s principal economic rivals appear to be charting courses that are not in line with U.S. interests. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Stagflation Becoming an Economic Reality / Economics / Stagflation
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke didn't use the "S" word - stagflation - but he might as well have.
On Friday, the U.S. central bank chief said that the financial crisis that has hammered the U.S. market is combining with rising inflation to eviscerate American economy. Together, the two forces are making it extremely difficult for the Fed to restore economic stability in the U.S. market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
The United States of America is the Next Argentina / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
DON'T CRY FOR ME ARGENTINA SAVE YOUR TEARS FOR YOURSELF - While bankers do control the issuance of credit, they cannot control themselves. Bankers are the fatal flaw in their deviously opaque system that has substituted credit for money and debt for savings. The bankers have spread their credit-based system across the world by catering to basic human needs and ambition and greed; and while human needs can be satisfied, ambition and greed cannot—and the bankers' least of all. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Soaring Savings Rate Heralds End of Consumerism / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
In Revisiting the M3 Contraction I stated " consumers are saving, rather than spending their stimulus checks ". Some found that statement hard to believe. Let's take a look. Sev writes: " Mish, the argument that more people are saving is something I find hard to believe. Their bills are skyrocketing and "price" increases are eating into their monthly costs. Maybe some have paid down bills but I would bet the vast majority don't have the means. Now maybe ultra rich people are moving their vast sums into perceived safer investment vehicles but the thought that actual saving is increasing I don't think makes complete sense.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Revisiting US Money Supply M3 Contraction / Economics / Money Supply
By: Mike_Shedlock
Many have been writing asking how the chart and commentary in M3 Contraction - The Future Is Now can possibly be correct. Here is the chart and a snip of text once again for convenience. The key sentence below is in RED. The Telegraph is reporting Sharp US money supply contraction points to Wall Street crunch ahead .
The US money supply has experienced the sharpest contraction in modern history, heightening the risk of a Wall Street crunch and a severe economic slowdown in coming months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Collateral Economic Damage in the War Between Inflation and Deflation / Economics / Money Supply
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The shooting-match between inflation in prices and deflation in assets is still a long way from won..."
WHICH WAY now for financial assets? Given what pumped them up, starting in late 2002, you're better off asking which way for money itself.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
US Recession with Inflation or Deflation? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2009
By: Bruce_Allen
"One foot on the brake and one on the gas, hey! " --Sammy Hagar, "I Can't Drive 55" It's the summer of 2008 in the U.S. . Recession is imminent, if not already here, and debate rages as to whether it will be accompanied by inflation, giving us that 70's show--stagflation. Most respected economists insist the inflation risk is small; a number of others think it's high. We examine the arguments, dividing them into Things We Know and Things We Suspect.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Stagflation a Weapon of Mass Wealth Destruction / Economics / Stagflation
By: Richard_C_Cook
U.S. wholesale prices in July 2008 grew at the fastest rate since 1981. The cost of materials has risen 9.8 percent in the last twelve months, according to government data. While gasoline prices fell the week of August 18 to $3.74 a gallon, they remain far higher than the $2.40 a gallon of mid-2005. Meanwhile, the price of food at the grocery store continues to climb, while consumer purchasing power remains stagnant.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
US M3 Money Supply Contraction Points to Deflation / Economics / Money Supply
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Telegraph is reporting Sharp US money supply contraction points to Wall Street crunch ahead . The US money supply has experienced the sharpest contraction in modern history, heightening the risk of a Wall Street crunch and a severe economic slowdown in coming months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Global Economic Slow Down / Economics / Global Economy
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Amid signs of economic slowing, the oil decline continues to garner the headlines. Not only is the US economy in a funk, but also Europe is beginning to show signs of slowing, as is Hong Kong – all the more reason to sell energy, as less will be needed in a global economy producing less.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
The US Economy: All the little things that go to make a Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2009
By: Gerard_Jackson
Since 9/11 the US money supply has rocketed by about 70 per cent*. (The Clinton presidency was just as bad). The problem is one of bad economics, not bad investment decisions, wild speculation, the housing boom, the falling dollar, the current account deficit, the domestic deficit, etc. The vast majority of economic pundits have only a dim understanding of the link between the money supply and America's current economic difficulties.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
US Recession, Economic Data is a Lagging Indicator / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2009
By: John_Mauldin
In this weekend's Thoughts from the Frontlines, I quoted from part of a very thoughtful, right-on-target analysis by David A. Rosenberg entitled "The Elusive Bottom." Over the weekend, I decided that you should read the whole piece, as Rosenberg makes some very solid points about how the markets and the economy may play out over the next few years. He has a non-consensus viewpoint, but that is what I like for Outside the Box. In fact, I think this is one of the more thought-provoking pieces I have used in OTB for some time. Read full article... Read full article...